This past Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, my brother texted me: “Patriots, Colts, Saints, Vikings. Can anyone else get to Miami?”
My initial reaction, as a big Cincinnati fan, was to say that the Bengals have a chance to reach the Super Bowl. The more I thought about it, I realized that while anyone could go, the Bengals are on the second tier of likely Super Bowl contenders, along with San Diego, Pittsburgh, Dallas and Philadelphia. Notice a team omitted from that list.
The Arizona Cardinals are this season’s forgotten powerhouse. At 7-4, Kurt Warner and the Cards are still in control of the NFC West, and they have already proven from last year that they are an NFC contender.
The popular opinion is that New Orleans and Minnesota will meet for the NFC Championship. The title game match-up is a foregone conclusion, since the Saints and Vikings are clearly the two best teams in the conference. Nobody will challenge these teams, who both feature a great quarterback with a balance of great offense and good defense.
This common knowledge commits the error of assuming that the best teams in Week 10 are going to play the best in the postseason. We didn’t think the Cards were an NFC top dog last season until they actually reached the championship game, did we? The Giants were great and the Eagles were just above average… until Philly waxed New York in the divisional round. Tennessee was the lock-down defensive team with a good, steady offense… until mistake after mistake cost them against a steadier Baltimore offense.
This year, it seems that most people have made up their mind that Arizona will lose in the first or second round of the playoffs. Why? Because they just lost to red-hot Tennessee after sitting Warner? Because they have four losses compared to Minnesota’s one or New Orleans’ clean sheet?
Warner is old; Favre is older. Marques Colston and Sidney Rice are good No. 1 receivers; Larry Fitzgerald is a great one. The Saints and Vikings have solid defenses that have stopped good teams; Arizona has allowed more than 21 points fewer times than either of them.
And here’s the kicker: remember how good Kurt Warner has been in the playoffs in a dome? The guy knows how to play on turf, and against the Vikes and Saints, he’ll get a lot of it. Moreover, he’ll torch the overrated defenses in the class of the conference. Arizona, to me, is just as legitimate a threat to represent the NFC in Miami as those other two teams are. Maybe more so.
Think about it. What was the Cardinals’ weakness last season? At their best, the Cards still somewhat struggled to run the ball. The combination of Tim Hightower and rookie Beanie Wells has quelled that issue, and Arizona will be a potent offensive team in January.
Still don’t believe in the Cards?
How many No. 1 seeds make it to the Super Bowl? In the last four seasons, only three of the eight teams with the conference’s best record reached the big game. None of them won.
This is probably partly due to the regular season kings burning out.
These teams with great records aren’t always the best. Bad losses don’t mean bad team. The Cardinals, who have lost to San Francisco, Indianapolis, Carolina and Tennessee, all respectable, are still poised to make the postseason.
And that’s all Kurt Warner needs. You can give me New England, Indy, New Orleans and Minnesota. I’ll take Arizona.
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